Gerald Appel is a pioneer of chart based market timing. He also has a commendable track record. He has been ranked very highly for long term performance multiple times by the Hulbert market advisory rating service.



Mr. Appel, and his talented son Marvin, could have written a complex tome for market heads. This book, though, seems aimed at the vast majority of investors who do not want to take up economics, markets, and finance as an avocation. It aims to improve safety, and possibly returns, for retirement savers while keeping it as simple as possible. I think it succeeds in this mission.



The Appels' method of making minor quarterly adjustments within a portfolio of low cost exchange traded funds using tested techniques of market timing, asset allocation, and diversification does seem to add value for those willing to spend half an hour to an hour every three months. I imagine buy-and-hold investors spend more time than that worrying when markets go down sharply.



It's worth remembering that improving performance by, on average, a few percentage points a year, means you will retire with strikingly more money. Doing it by reducing losses along the way also makes it easier to stick to your plan, and it makes life more enjoyable!



I would have liked to have seen an appendix documenting the back tests in detail.



Most of the portfolio he recommends is constantly exposed to stock market risk (and, to be fair, stock market returns). He times domestic equities by switching between broad market sectors. I would have enjoyed a discussion of overlaying this approach with a simple market timing filter that gets one out altogether when risk is high.



Highly recommended, especially for non-market junkies who want to look out less for the interests of their mutual fund companies and more for their own.

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