China's economy is expected to grow over the next 20 years at a rate that will make it larger than the U.S. economy. This suggests that China has the economic potential to be an U.S. military rival by the year 2020. But can it become such a rival? At present, China's military hardware is based on 1950s Soviet technology. To produce weaponry technologically comparable to U.S. weaponry by 2020, China would have to improve its technological capabilities through internal, defense-industry efforts and/or other avenues. This report explores examining and rating China's current commercial technology in nine industries that have the most potential for supporting military technology development and assessing the prospects for technological progress. The findings suggest that even though China's military will not be the U.S. military's technological equal by 2020, the U.S. must still prepare for a Chinese military whose capabilities will steadily advance in the next 10 to 20 years.

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